Box Office Predictions: September 26th, 2014

Welcome all to Reel Reaction’s newest feature: box office predictions! From here on out our we’ll scour the Internet every week to determine which of the newest films are poised to break the bank, embarrassingly belly flop, or anything in between. Who knows how accurate our predictions are going to be but that’s half the fun. In our inaugural forecast we have the return of Denzel Washington to the megaplexes with “The Equalizer,” and Laika’s newest stopmotion extravaganza, “The Boxtrolls.” Are these new releases going to unseat holdover like “The Maze Runner” and “A Walk Among the Tombstones?” Take a look to find out and check back with us on Monday to see how our estimates measured up!

 1.) “The Maze Runner”:

Despite not quite reaching “Hunger Games” prestige, “The Maze Runner” still has a huge following of young adults readers. Opening at a strong $32.5 million, “The Maze Runner” has plenty of potential to wow a young audience, given enough time.   However, is that enough to stave off Denzel Washingon?  Despite not having the same draw as Jennifer Lawrence’s prized franchise, “The Maze Runner” is still a a young-adult book adaptation, endowing it with a built in audience that “The Equalizer” lacks, but did the fans of the book already see the film last weekend? Who knows for sure but we’re giving it the slight edge over “The Equalizer.”   ≈ $25 million

2.) “The Equalizer”:

The winning formula at the box office these days seems to be bad-ass action movies with a bad-ass star. “The Equalizer” brings both to the table, thanks to a character similar to Liam Neeson in “Taken”, and a huge box office draw in Denzel Washington. Despite having been around the block a few times, Denzel Washington remains bankable enough for people to shell out $10-$15 to see “The Equalizer” this weekend.  However, the added scruple of violence and an R-rating makes “The Equalizer’s” audience inherently smaller than “The Maze Runner’s” PG-13, putting the book adaptation just slightly above the Denzel actioner.   ≈ $24 million

3.) “The Boxtrolls”:

Considering the fact that this past summer was virtually free of kids films (save the abomination that was the new “TMNT” and the underperforming “How to Train Your Dragon 2”), “The Boxtrolls” should have no trouble cleaning up shop. While it wont draw the most diverse crowds, there should be an audience that’s hungry for a family-friendly flick.  The real question, however, is how is “Boxtrolls” going to stack up to previous Laika films?  “Paranoman” opened to a solid $14 million back in 2012, while “Coraline” opened to a slightly stronger $16.8 million in 2009.  Who knows where in that spectrum “Boxtrolls” is going to end up, but we’re predicting it ending up somewhere in the middle.   ≈ $15 million

4.) “A Walk Among the Tombstones”:

Liam Neeson is an addiction that the general public has yet to cure itself of. Despite not being in his typical guns blazing, “you have my daughter” sort of role, he is still a big enough draw to bring in a crowd. The opening weekend numbers were disappointingly soft, but “Tombstone” had a small enough budget that it should have no problem recuperating it in the next week or so.  Likewise, “Tombstone” isn’t the kind of film that’s going to be heavily frontloaded, so hopefully decent word of mouth will give this gritty crime thriller some sizable legs.   ≈ $8 million

5.) “This Is Where I Leave You”:

Coming in at a solid $11.5 million its opening weekend, “This Is Where I Leave You” still has potential to step up its game and be a contender. While not nearly as big of a draw as the top four films on the list, casual moviegoers will find it a refreshing break from the intensity that the rest of the list brings to the table. It’s still too early to count “This Is Where I Leave You” down and out.   ≈ $6.5 million

 

By Sam Rivman

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