We finally made it folks! After months and months of campaigning and one precursor award after the next, the 86th Annual Academy Awards airs tonight at 8pm/ET on ABC. It’s been a truly remarkable year for cinema and tonight the Academy chooses which films and performances enter the prestigious pantheon of Oscar-winners. With Ellen DeGeneres taking the reigns as host, we have no doubt that we’re in for a hilarious evening, and with so many films worthy of Oscar love, we’re hoping the Academy is more generous than usual this year in spreading the wealth around to a multitude of deserving pictures. Above all, we’re beyond excited to see how this year’s dramatic Best Picture race – a three-way, neck-and-neck race between 12 Years A Slave, Gravity, and American Hustle – turns out. It’s not every year the Oscar race ends in a photo finish, so we should all be celebrating the hell out of this once-in-a-blue-moon nail-biter. Below, our critics Zack Sharf and Mike Murphy make their picks for tonight’s big show. Ready, set, Oscar prediction time:
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Best Picture
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
MURPHY: 2013 was the cinematic year that kept on giving, even more so than 2012, with a three-way race to the finish pitting American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave neck-and-neck. Even with such astonishing fare in the background like the melancholy Nebraska, the tender Her, and the intoxicating The Wolf of Wall Street (not to mention snubbed greats like Inside Llewyn Davis and Prisoners), it’s these three very different and very great features that we have to choose from. I’m going to stick with what I said from the minute I left my screening of 12 Years a Slave, that it deserves to win Best Picture for many more reasons than just technically, aesthetically, narratively, and completely being the best film to make its way through multiplexes this year. Slave is an important piece of work for its fearless representation of content and its aggressive invitation to have viewers take part in a heinous experience, and that it does so with such grace is remarkable. It’s hard to disregard when it is such a monumental piece of work. 12 Years a Slave is without question 2014’s Best Picture.
SHARF: What makes this such a challenge to predict is the Academy’s fairly new voting system, in which Academy members rank their favorite films in order (1-9) and the film with the highest majority takes the prize. In other words, a film doesn’t need to have the most #1’s as it does the most appearances in the top 3 in order to win Best Picture. This weighted ballot system is why general crowd pleasers like Argo and The Artist prevailed in their respective years, and it’s why Gravity may just take the big prize (it’s probably in a lot of people’s top 3, where the more divisive 12 Years is probably either #1 or just not in someone’s top 3 period). And yet, 12 Years is so vital, as Murphy perfectly states above, that I can’t see the Academy not bestowing its top prize to McQueen’s bold, blistering epic. 12 Years A Slave all the way.
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Best Director
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
MURPHY: Buying a ticket to see Gravity in a movie theater is easily the closest many of us will ever get to actually going to space. There are technical achievements in Gravity that I will never understand and others that I’m not sure can fully be explained. The film is a work of genius, envisioned and executed by Alfonso Cuarón so flawlessly, the Academy might as well have his Oscar waiting for him at his seat.
SHARF: He has directed one of the best foreign language dramas (Y Tu Mama Tambien), the best Harry Potter movie (Prisoner of Askaban), and one of the best dystopian dramas (Children of Men). Tonight, Alfonso Cuaron deservedly becomes an Oscar-winning director for the groundbreaking feat of Gravity.
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Best Actress
Amy Adams, American Hustle
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
MURPHY: Sorry Sandra, sorry Amy. I love you both dearly and would do anything to have one of you pull through tonight, but Cate Blanchett’s name has been in the Academy envelope since Blue Jasmine dropped over the summer. Woody Allen has gotten another one of his leading ladies a golden statue.
SHARF: Cate Blanchett’s tour-de-force has won every precursor award on the planet. She’s the biggest lock of the night and no Woody Allen scandal can change that.
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Best Actor
Christian Bale, American Hustle
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
MURPHY: Robert Redford, Joaquin Phoenix, Oscar Isaac, Hugh Jackman, and Tom Hanks – a quintet of actors whom all delivered extraordinary performances worthy of their own awards recognition – all gave way to Matthew McConaughey, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Christian Bale, Bruce Dern, and Leonardo DiCaprio vying for a win in the year’s most competitive category. Literally, any of these five performers could take the trophy, as they all deserve it for different reasons. However, things have surely narrowed since the race began, and if the Oscars are to remain with choices that reverb within the moment, nobody is gleaming more in this very moment than Matthew McConaughey. With memorable turns in Mud and The Wolf of Wall Street, plus his sure-to-be-Emmy-winning performance on HBO’s True Detective, the fact that McConaughey pulled heartstrings in Dallas Buyers Club is the last push the actor needs to be ahead. As much I love the other four nominees in this category, this is the apex of the McConaissance; it’s all been a long time coming.
SHARF: The McConaissance reaches its glorious peak tonight when Matthew McConaughey accepts the prize, capping a truly stellar year on the big screen. Next stop, the Emmys for True Detective.
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Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
MURPHY: There are those categories every year where four of the five nominees have to accept the fact that being nominated is as good as it’s going to get. For 2014, Best Supporting Actor is that category. For all of Bradley Cooper’s rattles, Jonah Hill’s pill-popping, Barkhad Abdi’s muted ferocity, and Michael Fassbender’s vicious malevolence, Jared Leto’s transformative gender leap in Dallas Buyers Club is an emotional and physical feat that foregoes any bait-y or ‘Oscar-y’ qualities and nips with a prickly rawness and authenticity that speaks not only to Leto’s commitment, but also to his sheer acting abilities as well. For a performer who took a longer than necessary acting hiatus, this is a reminder of how grateful we should all be to have him back in the acting realm.
SHARF: Oh how I would love for Bradley Cooper or Jonah Hill to take the award for their manically twisted, high-lunacy performances, but Jared Leto has this in the bag.
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Best Supporting Actress
Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
MURPHY: Lupita or Jennifer? It’s one of the more irresolute questions looming over tonight’s awards. If Jennifer hadn’t taken it last year for Silver Linings Playbook, I would be far more inclined to say that her reunion with David O. Russell would score her the belated award, but as it stands, is giving Jennifer Lawrence a second Oscar in two years the right move over Lupita Nyong’o’s devastating debut in 12 Years a Slave? The actresses do seem to be on an even playing field, but something tells me that Lupita Nyong’o has this one headed her way. Maybe it’s her stylist or her acceptance speech writer that are to thank for the extra push, or maybe Lawrence herself after she began shying away from awards junkets later in the race. Regardless, Nyong’o is a revelation in 12 Years a Slave and rests a notch higher than Lawrence in my book.
SHARF: Lawrence and that microwave are one for the books, but I’ll be damned if Lupita Nyong’o doesn’t win for her incredible debut performance. The whipping scene alone is a feat of acting agony.
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Best Adapted Screenplay
Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope, Philomena
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter, The Wolf of Wall Street
MURPHY: It wouldn’t be an intellectual choice based on all the previous circuit winners, but I’m going to pray to each and every God hoping that it happens. Richard Linklater, Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy deserve the award here for their trilogy-ending Before Midnight. It’s gotten the respect that it deserves since it came out of hiding in May, but it never leapt to the forefront. I will hold out until the end with all of my heart, but my money is definitely going toward John Ridley for 12 Years a Slave. I wouldn’t rule out an upset from The Wolf of Wall Street’s Terence Winter, or Steve Coogan for putting attentive energy into Philomena, or even WGA winner Billy Ray for Captain Phillips – obviously this category is very, very competitive – but Ridley’s formal prose have a Shakespearean quality that adds a prestige layer to 12 Years a Slave and allows so many of the audacious performances to radiate with independence. Linklater, Hawke, and Delpy will always be the deserved winners for an 18-year creative process, but Ridley is of the moment.
SHARF: In a perfect world, Before Midnight wins this with ease (it’s the best screenplay of the entire year, original or adapted), but expect John Ridley’s 12 Years A Slave to prevail – it echoes through history and makes a profoundly present statement about legacy, character, and the resiliency of the human spirit.
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Best Original Screenplay
Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell, American Hustle
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack, Dallas Buyers Club
Spike Jonze, Her
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
MURPHY: I usually go out on a limb in the screenplay categories, but as the season continued and frontrunners started to take form, my biggest joy came from seeing Spike Jonze’s Her screenplay wiggle its way past the competition. One of the industries brightest and most creative auteurs is overdue for Oscar consideration, even with Her being only his fourth feature, and while his directing abilities will have to wait a little bit longer to be recognized, I’m pretty convinced that the power of his words have this category in the bag. Hallelujah!
SHARF: That Spike Jonze turns what sounds like a silly love story between a man and his computer into a meditatively melancholy study on heartbreak is remarkable and deserving of the prize. But watch out for the live-wire chess game that is American Hustle.
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Best Original Song
“Happy,” Despicable Me 2; music and lyrics by Pharrell Williams
“Let It Go,” Frozen; music and lyrics by Kristen Anderson-Lopez & Robert Lopez
“The Moon Song,” Her; music by Karen O, lyrics by Karen O. & Spike Jonze
“Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; music by Paul Hewson, Dan Evans, Adam Clayton, and Larry Mullen, a.k.a. U2; lyrics by Paul Hewson, a.k.a. Bono
MURPHY: “‘Let it Go,’ let it go, can’t hold it back anymore, let it go, let it go, turn away and slam the door, I don’t care, What they’re going to say, Let the storm rage on, The cold never bothered me anyway.” … yes, I did write all of that from memory, what’s good??!!
SHARF: This might be the only year where I can actually say the Best Original Song category kicks some major ass. I’ve been tapping my feet to Pharrell’s infectious “Happy” since July, and weeping over Karen O’s gorgeously somber “Moon Song”, but Disney’s power ballad “Let It Go” has cast its spell all around the world, the Academy included.
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Best Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises
MURPHY: Yea, so…Frozen, without question. The cold never bothered me anyway.
SHARF: Frozen will give Walt Disney Animation Studios its first gold statue ever. Take that, Pixar!
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Best Documentary — Feature
The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom
MURPHY: The best documentary of the year for me was Sarah Polley’s intimate Stories We Tell, which sadly was omitted by the Academy. Therefore, of the five nominated, The Act of Killing has the lasting power and fandom to become a winner. It might be the 12 Years a Slave of documentaries this year, and if 12 Years’ awards prospects are any indication of this category, than Killing probably has it made. Would love to see 20 Feet from Stardom sneak in too, if only to get more people excited to seek it out.
SHARF: The Act of Killing is the powerhouse pick and Cutie and the Boxer the artful one, but 20 Feet From Stardom hits you like an explosion of pure joy and I expect its infectiousness to sweep the Academy off its feet. Let’s give the backup singers their due!
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Best Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown, Belgium
The Great Beauty, Italy
The Hunt, Denmark
The Missing Picture, Cambodia
Omar, Palestine
SHARF: With France snubbing its own remarkable Blue is the Warmest Color, Italy’s Golden Globe-winning The Great Beauty is the probable winner.
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Best Original Score
John Williams, The Book Thief
Steven Price, Gravity
William Butler and Owen Pallett, Her
Alexandre Desplat, Philomena
Thomas Newman, Saving Mr. Banks
MURPHY: If Gravity hits a stride, there’s no reason why Steven Price’s planetarium-meets-death-vacuum soundtrack doesn’t take Best Original Score. Still, William Butler and Owen Pallett’s gloomy, somewhat despondent drones and piano melodies in Spike Jonze’s Her are poetic and pretty and wonderfully melancholy, all in keeping with Jonze’s film as a whole. If not only to say that Arcade Fire has an Oscar, Butler and Pallett have enough momentum and fan drive to succeed in a less-than-locked category. Plus, after Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross won for The Social Network in 2010, it wouldn’t be wrong to say that the Academy is starting to catch up with beloved, atmospheric musicians.
SHARF: William Butler and Owen Pallet’s score for Her deserves to win for all the reasons Murphy mentions above, but the fact of that matter is that Steven Price’s music singlehandedly turns Gravity into a planetarium-meets-death-vacuum horror show and that’s a feat in itself.
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Best Cinematography
Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Roger A. Deakins, Prisoners
MURPHY: There probably isn’t much that I wouldn’t do for Roger Deakins to win his first Oscar for his excellently understated work in Prisoners, but the movie universe sadly doesn’t come to me with all of its swing votes. This is most likely going to be one of the many technical categories that Gravity scores, earning Emmanuel Lubezski his first Oscar after being snubbed in 2009 for The Tree of Life. Still, I’m holding out for another dark horse: Bruno Delbonnel, who lensed the Coens’ dusty Inside Llewyn Davis, and if the quasi-musical/biopic has any shot of becoming an Oscar winner, this is the one of its two nominated categories where it actually has the best chance. Still, Gravity is a technical behemoth if there ever was one.
SHARF: It’s hard to tell where the direction ends and the cinematography begins in Gravity (as it was with last year’s winner in this category, Life of Pi), but that’s part of the film’s magic trick. Lubezski takes this over Delbonnel.
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Best Production Design
Judy Becker (Production Design); Heather Loeffler (Set Decoration), American Hustle
Andy Nicholson (Production Design); Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard (Set Decoration), Gravity
Catherine Martin (Production Design); Beverley Dunn (Set Decoration), The Great Gatsby
K.K. Barrett (Production Design); Gene Serdena (Set Decoration), Her
Adam Stockhausen (Production Design); Alice Baker (Set Decoration), 12 Years a Slave
MURPHY: A tough one, no doubt. Would it be considered a cop out if I think that this category is just going to get swept up by Gravity? (pun intended). Gatsby and 12 Years definitely have a shot, and Her’s subtle futuristic design is worth the recognition, but so much of the ‘Woa!’ factor in Gravity stems just as much from Andy Nicholson, Rosie Goodwin and Joanne Woollard’s production design work as it does from the visual effects and Cuarón’s direction.
SHARF: The eye-popping lavishness of The Great Gatsby probably has this in the bag, but I’m really pushing for Her, where the production designers created a future that speaks volumes to where our present ideals and values are headed. Now that’s scary, richly beautiful.
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Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Adruitha Lee and Robin Mathews, Dallas Buyers Club
Stephen Prouty, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Joel Harlow and Gloria Pasqua-Casny, The Lone Ranger
MURPHY: I stand by my statement that the best thing for American Hustle would be for it to win nothing. To go 0-10, like Gangs of New York twelve years ago. It would preserve its legacy, unlike, say, Argo or The Kings Speech, which have become ‘cool to hate’ since they are great films that the majority now sees as unworthy of their Best Picture crowns. American Hustle is heading down that road if it sweeps any of the major awards – sans Jennifer Lawrence or Amy Adams in a Best Actress upset – and I’m hoping for the film’s sake – and because I genuinely adore Hustle – that it becomes a runner-up in every category. However, if there is any award that Hustle is undoubtedly primed for, it’s Best Makeup & Hairstyling. When Christian Bale gets a come over, Jennifer Lawrence has a mop that can do its own dance to Paul McCartney & Wings, and both Amy Adams and Bradley Cooper look like pampered poodles, you should be a shoe-in for a win. Yet, irony strikes again, and Hustle ISN’T nominated here, overshadowed by Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa and The Lone Ranger, of all things. Just for irony’s sake, Jackass becoming an Oscar winner would be music to my ears, but Dallas Buyers Club seems like the more collegiate choice in Hustle’s absence.
SHARF: Dallas Buyers Club has the win for sure, but in all seriousness, the fact that the Jackass team was able to make incident bystanders believe Johnny Knoxville was saggy, raunchy 88-year-old is a testament to just how Oscar-worthy the make-up was. Hey, if Norbit could win this category why can’t Jackass?
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Best Costume Design
Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle
William Chang Suk Ping, The Grandmaster
Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby
Michael O’Connor, The Invisible Woman
Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave
MURPHY: Though 12 Years a Slave is poised for a win here, as is American Hustle arguably, this is one of those niche categories that can lean toward a far more obscure choice, and in that case it would be weird to see The Great Gatsby get overlooked here. For all of its flash and MTV’ness, the costumes do gleam and sparkle the right amount. Plus, in the scenes where Baz Luhrmann decides to hold back, the costumes maintain their expectant level of excellence. Gatsby’s got this one.
SHARF: I agree with Murphy. Gatsby’s costumes showed the perfect amount of class and flash, and they were truly the only memorable thing about Baz Luhrmann’s over-the-top adaptation. And yet, there’s no doubt Hustle deserves this one, as the costumes were not only gorgeous but they also gave startling insights into who every character was striving desperately to be.
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Best Film Editing
Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers and Alan Baumgarten, American Hustle
Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips
John Mac McMurphy and Martin Pensa, Dallas Buyers Club
Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, Gravity
Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
MURPHY: Props to all of the nominees in this category and props to the Academy for nominating Dallas Buyers Club here, a film that had surprisingly tight editing. While Gravity taking it wouldn’t be out of the question, a far more fitting winner would be Christopher Rouse for Captain Phillips. A previous winner for another Paul Greengrass actioner – The Bourne Ultimatum – much of Rouse’s work in Phillips, like Greengrass’s direction, is just above and beyond what the film asks for. Phillips has all the makings of an engaging film just from its ripped from the headlines narrative, but the Greengrass-Rouse fusion does take it to another artistic level entirely, much like it did for Ultimatum years ago. Throw in Tom Hanks and Barkhad Abdi for good measure and you have a polished nautical blockbuster, one whose technical qualities can easily go unnoticed by a casual viewer because they are honestly that good
SHARF: Murphy is absolutely right about Captain Phillips’ incredible editing, and it would be great for the Academy to spread the wealth here since this is the film’s only real shot at an Oscar, but something tells me Gravity will continue its technical dominance here.
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Best Visual Effects
Tim Webber, Chris Lawrence, Dave Shirk and Neil Corbould, Gravity
Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon, David Clayton and Eric Reynolds, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Erik Nash and Dan Sudick, Iron Man 3
Tim Alexander, Gary Brozenich, Edson Williams and John Frazier, The Lone Ranger
Roger Guyett, Patrick Tubach, Ben Grossmann and Burt Dalton, Star Trek Into Darkness
MURPHY: When you spend 88 minutes in a movie theater wondering how the hell they made it look like the whole production went into space, that usually is enough to justify a Best Visual Effects Oscar win. Congratulations Gravity.
SHARF: Wait, Murphy, you’re telling me that Alfonso, Sandra, and George didn’t actually go to space to film this? I’ll be damned! Gravity all the way.
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Best Sound Mixing
Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor, Mike Prestwood Smith and Chris Munro, Captain Phillips
Skip Lievsay, Niv Adiri, Christopher Benstead and Chris Munro, Gravity
Christopher Boyes, Michael Hedges, Michael Semanick and Tony Johnson, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Skip Lievsay, Greg Orloff and Peter F. Kurland, Inside Llewyn Davis
Andy Koyama, Beau Borders and David Brownlow, Lone Survivor
MURPHY: Happy to see Lone Survivor get a nomination here, and Inside Llewyn Davis, which deserved many more nominations than it was tossed, but there’s little stopping Gravity. That movie swallowed me up and then spat me back out, and I’m sure I wasn’t the only person who forgot I was sitting in a theater the whole time. Gravity is an experience, one that would have been tattered without strong sound design. As part of creating the environment, Gravity’s sound mixing is literally magical.
SHARF: For me, the best part of Gravity was by far its sound. All those muffled vibrations and haunting silences. I still have chills. A game-changer for the sound medium indeed.
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Best Sound Editing
Steve Boeddeker and Richard Hymns, All Is Lost
Oliver Tarney, Captain Phillips
Glenn Freemantle, Gravity
Brent Burge, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Wylie
Stateman, Lone Survivor
MURPHY: Gravity. See above.
SHARF: Gravity. See above.
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What are your picks for the 86th Annual Academy Awards? Let us know in the comments below.
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